Lots of folks think this nuke thing is good news for the GOP because it puts national security in play and diminishes the Foley stuff. As political analysis, I think that's probably right. But let's keep in mind that North Korea's nuke testing constitutes a failure of US policy. We can debate the details and the extenuating circumstances, but President Bush denounced the Axis of Evil five years ago and promised that he would do everything to keep its members from getting nukes. Well, North Korea just detonated one. Iran is well on its way to getting one. And Iraq, well, that's not quite the bright spot we hoped it would be"
NRO 10/9/2006 [h/t Andrew Sullivan.]
The problem of course was lumping them altogether to begin with. Iran is, in my estimate, open to negotiation; North Korea is off in looney land. The key is China. Right now, I think Japan will feel it has to develop nuclear weapons, since the only possible target is Tokyo.
North Korea has no way to deliver bombs very far. It knows that any use of it's (1-2-3-4 - some small number) of launchers will result in an immediate response - but they are weird enough to try it.
It may turn out that Bill Clinton was right again (and I thought he was wrong at at the time) in allowing commerce with China. Commerce is creating a rich and huge middle class that simply will not allow the destruction of its wealth by some stupid rice-farmer ideological war. China's one child policy is helping; when you put all your eggs (or sperm) in one cuddly little basket, you do not want to loose eternal veneration as an ancestor by having the little bugger blown to pieces in the name of a North Korean with a funny hairdo and a Hollywood fixation.
1 comment:
Two things I disagree with you on. The first is that "Iran... is open to negotiations." What could you possibly trade Iran in exchange for guaranteed sovereignty? Perhaps a Mutual Super-Friends Treaty? Nuclear bombs are not built to be used, they are built to deter. If there's one thing Iraq taught the rest of the "rogue" nations of the world it's that the only insurance policy you have is nuclear status. You don't even need particularly hi-tech delivery systems... you just need a big boom to ward off those obsessed with "regime change."
The second thing is this whole "China is the key to N. Korea" meme. This isn't 1950. China has more weight than anyone else, sure, but it doesn't amount to jack. They asked them not to lob missiles over Japan. Did that work? They warned the DPRNK not to test this nuke. They did*. Kim does what Kim wants. Again, I don't think it's open to negotiation anymore than America's or Britain's arsenal's are open to negotiation.
* it likely didn't work. A lot of reports said it was a sub-kiloton explosion based on the Richter measure. Even the smallest nukes yield about 10-15kt. Plutonium is much harder to work with than uranium and a critical mass was likely not netted. It's also interesting to note it was a day late exploding.
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